What percentage of HVAC revenue comes from commercial clients?

Commercial clients account for approximately 45% of U.S. HVAC services revenue (2025). Commercial HVAC work commands higher contract values, with preventive maintenance averaging $1,800 per rooftop unit per year. The commercial energy-efficiency retrofit market alone is worth $14.8 billion.

How severe is the HVAC technician shortage?

The U.S. faces an estimated 115,000 unfilled HVAC technician roles as of 2025. This shortage is driven by an aging workforce (average age 45), rapid growth in heat pump installations, and increasing complexity of building automation systems. The gap is projected to widen through 2030.

How many commercial buildings are near an existing HVAC contract?

Scayled's scan data shows an average of 16.5 commercial buildings within 400m of an existing HVAC service contract, the highest density of any tracked vertical. 74% of occupiers have discoverable decision-makers, and neighbour-referenced outreach generates 2.6x higher reply rates vs cold prospecting.

What is the heat pump adoption rate in commercial buildings?

Heat pumps now account for 34% of new commercial HVAC installations (2025), up from 18% in 2020. Adoption is driven by electrification mandates, carbon-reduction targets, and the improving economics of commercial heat pump systems. Australia and New Zealand show even higher adoption due to milder climates and earlier building-code changes.

Updated May 2026

HVAC Industry Statistics 2026

2026 HVAC industry statistics: USD $198B global market, 5.6% CAGR, commercial service benchmarks, and original Scayled proximity data across AU, NZ, and US markets.

$198 billion

↑ 5.6% CAGR (2024-2030)

Global market size

$55.2 billion

U.S. market

$8.7 billion

Australia market

$1.6 billion

New Zealand market

Industry overview

The global hvac market reached USD $198 billion in 2026, growing at 5.6% CAGR (2024-2030). The United States remains the largest single market at USD $55.2 billion, followed by established Asia-Pacific markets in Australia and New Zealand.

Key statistics

Global market size[1]

USD $198B2026

U.S. HVAC services market[2]

USD $55.2B2026

Number of U.S. HVAC businesses[2]

118,0002025

U.S. HVAC employment[3]

420,0002025

Commercial vs residential split[2]

45% / 55%2025

Average commercial HVAC service contract[4]Per rooftop unit, preventive maintenance

USD $1,800/yr2025

Heat pump adoption rate (new commercial installs)[5]Up from 18% in 2020

34%2025

HVAC technician shortage (U.S.)[3]

115,000 unfilled roles2025

Energy-efficiency retrofit market[5]Commercial buildings only

USD $14.8B2025

Regional breakdown

United States 2026

USD $55.2B

Australia 2025

AUD $8.7B

New Zealand 2025

NZD $1.6B

Original research

Scayled data

The following statistics are original to Scayled, computed from aggregate scan-pipeline data across hvac-vertical accounts. Each metric includes its methodology, sample size, and date range.

Average commercial buildings within 400m of an existing HVAC contract16.5

Median count of commercial-zoned buildings within 400m of buildings where an HVAC operator holds an active service contract, across Scayled's AU + NZ + US scan footprint.

Sample: 2,920 building-centre scans | Period: Jan-Apr 2026

Percentage of commercial tenants with a discoverable decision-maker74%

Share of occupiers identified during neighbour scans where the enrichment pipeline resolved at least one named facilities/operations decision-maker with verified contact details.

Sample: 15,600 occupier records | Period: Jan-Apr 2026

Neighbour-referenced vs cold outreach reply rate (HVAC operators)2.6x higher

Ratio of email reply rates for outreach mentioning a shared building/precinct vs generic cold emails, measured across HVAC Scayled accounts.

Sample: 780 outreach sequences | Period: Jan-Apr 2026

Average contact enrichment time per building4.5 seconds

Median wall-clock time from scan initiation to first enriched contact returned, across all HVAC-vertical scans.

Sample: 2,920 scans | Period: Jan-Apr 2026

Methodology

Market size figures are sourced from Fortune Business Insights, IBISWorld, and the IEA. Employment data comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and equivalent agencies in AU/NZ.

Scayled original statistics are computed from aggregate pipeline data across HVAC-vertical accounts. Sample sizes and date ranges are stated per metric. No individual occupier or account data is disclosed.

The HVAC industry includes both equipment manufacturing and services (installation, maintenance, repair). Statistics on this page focus on the services segment unless otherwise noted.

Sources

Fortune Business Insights, HVAC Systems Market Report 2024-2030 Accessed 2026-05-18.
IBISWorld, HVAC Services in the US, Industry Report 23822, 2025 Accessed 2026-05-18.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, HVAC Mechanics and Installers, OOH 2025 Accessed 2026-05-18.
ASHRAE, Commercial HVAC Maintenance Benchmarking Study 2025 Accessed 2026-05-18.
IEA, Heat Pumps in Commercial Buildings Report 2025 Accessed 2026-05-18.
IBISWorld, Air Conditioning and Heating Services in Australia, 2025 Accessed 2026-05-18.
Stats NZ, Business Activity Survey, Building Services ANZSIC E3222, 2025 Accessed 2026-05-18.

Cite this report

SCAYLED (2026). HVAC Industry Statistics 2026. Retrieved from https://scayled.com/data/hvac-statistics-2026

Free to quote with attribution. Creative Commons CC BY 4.0.

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Frequently asked questions

The global HVAC systems market is valued at approximately USD $198 billion in 2026, growing at 5.6% CAGR through 2030. The U.S. HVAC services market alone is worth $55.2 billion, with 118,000 businesses employing 420,000 workers. Australia contributes AUD $8.7 billion and New Zealand NZD $1.6 billion.

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