What is the best way to manage industrial lease expiries and rollover risk?
The best way to manage industrial lease expiries is to work every material expiry on two tracks well before the notice date: a renewal conversation with the sitting tenant, and a quiet replacement search in case they leave. A lease system such as Yardi, MRI or VTS keeps the dates; what you do before them is what manages the expiry. Scayled runs the replacement track: for an expiring unit it finds 250 to 350 businesses the building suits, the person who signs at each, and a drafted approach per business, without advertising the space, as a Full Campaign for US$749.
- What does lease expiry management involve?
- Which software tracks lease expiries?
- When should you start working an industrial lease expiry?
- How do you manage rollover risk across the portfolio?
- How does Scayled help with an expiring lease?
- What does it cost?
What does lease expiry management involve?
It covers every date that can change a tenancy: lease expiry, option-to-renew exercise windows, break dates and their notice periods, rent reviews, and make good or reinstatement obligations at the end of the term. Across the portfolio it also means watching the rollover profile, how much income expires in each year, and the weighted average lease expiry (WALE) that valuers and lenders look at.
The dates are the easy part. The work is deciding, for each material tenancy, whether to renew, regear, rightsize or replace, and starting early enough that each of those options is still open.
Which software tracks lease expiries?
Yardi, MRI and Re-Leased all hold critical dates and send reminders; VTS shows lease roll alongside the deals in progress; lease abstraction tools pull the dates out of signed documents. Smaller owners use a well-kept spreadsheet.
These tools are good at making sure no date is missed. They say nothing about intent: whether the tenant in a given unit is planning to consolidate, outgrowing the clear height, or already viewing other buildings. That only comes from talking to the tenant and watching what is happening in its business.
When should you start working an industrial lease expiry?
Count backwards from the notice date or option window, not from the expiry. The lead time has to cover the renewal talks, any make good or refurbishment, a new occupier's search and approval, and its fit-out, so that a complete replacement search could still finish before the lease ends.
Large single-let units need the longest lead, because there are fewer businesses that can take them and each one takes longer to decide. Put the start date for each material expiry in the lease system as its own critical date, not just the expiry itself.
How do you manage rollover risk across the portfolio?
Rank expiries by the income each puts at stake, not by date alone. A big-box expiry two years out can matter more than three small units expiring next quarter. Watch for concentration: several large expiries in the same year, or in the same submarket, compete with each other for the same occupiers.
Use regears and early renewals to spread the profile where a tenant is likely to stay, and for each large expiry know how deep the replacement demand is. A unit with many businesses it suits is a smaller risk than one with very few, even at the same rent.
How does Scayled help with an expiring lease?
Scayled is the replacement track in that two-track plan. Give it a brief on the expiring building and it returns 250 to 350 businesses that could take the space, from the immediate area outwards, with the owner, director or property lead at each, a checked contact and a drafted email. Started well before the notice date, it means a replacement conversation is already running if the tenant decides to go.
Every approach is one to one and nothing is advertised, so the sitting tenant is not alerted by a listing. The campaign brief lists who to leave out, starting with the sitting tenant. The list also gives the asset manager a view of real demand for the unit, which strengthens the renewal negotiation.
What does it cost?
The replacement track for an expiring unit is one campaign, paid once: US$749 for the Full version, with no commission on the letting and no subscription. The emails are written as the owner, and Scayled can send them from a mailbox on the fund's company email for US$299 more.
Every business, contact and email stays in the fund's Scayled account after the campaign, so the next expiry in the same area starts from businesses the team already knows. When an expiry does turn into a void, backfilling a vacant warehouse follows the same method.
Lease The Vacancy In-House, Before You Appoint An Agent.
The Campaign finds the 250 to 350 businesses the building suits, names the person who decides at each and writes every email, ready in about five days. One payment of US$749 per property, no commission and no subscription. A focused 100 to 150 from US$449.