How do you forecast vacancy across an industrial portfolio?
You forecast vacancy across an industrial portfolio by combining the lease expiry and break schedule with a renewal probability and an expected downtime for each tenancy, usually in ARGUS Enterprise or the fund's own model, then adjusting the tenancies you know more about from credit checks and tenant conversations. Scayled does not forecast vacancy. It acts on what the forecast flags: for a unit that is vacant or likely to come back, it finds the 250 to 350 businesses the building suits and the person who signs at each, so the downtime the model assumes can be shortened.
- What goes into a vacancy forecast?
- Which software do funds use to forecast vacancy?
- Why do vacancy forecasts miss?
- How do you make the forecast tenant by tenant?
- How do you turn a forecast into fewer void months?
- What does Scayled cost, and how does it fit the forecasting stack?
What goes into a vacancy forecast?
A vacancy forecast is built from four inputs: lease events (expiries, break dates, options to renew), the probability each tenant renews, the months of downtime expected if it does not, and the incentive and letting cost to secure a new tenant. Market vacancy and availability data from CoStar or agency research provide the context for those assumptions.
Multiply them out across the portfolio and you get expected vacant area and lost income by quarter. The forecast is only as good as the renewal and downtime assumptions, and those are the inputs least often checked against what is actually happening at each tenant.
Which software do funds use to forecast vacancy?
ARGUS Enterprise handles it inside the cash flow model: each lease rolls into market leasing assumptions with a renewal probability and months vacant, and the model blends the renewal and new-tenant outcomes. Yardi or MRI supplies the lease data. VTS shows lease roll and the deals in progress against each expiry. Smaller owners do the same in a spreadsheet.
Credit monitoring from Creditsafe, Dun & Bradstreet or Experian adds a financial overlay, with alerts when a tenant's score or filings change. Each tool is good at its part; none of them knows whether a specific solvent tenant intends to stay.
Why do vacancy forecasts miss?
Forecasts miss because the renewal probability is usually a blanket assumption applied to every lease of a type, not a view on each tenant. A tenant consolidating after an acquisition and one that is expanding in place can carry the same number in the model.
They also miss unscheduled events, such as insolvency or a parent company closing a site mid-lease, and they treat downtime as fixed. In practice downtime depends heavily on when the re-letting effort starts and how many suitable businesses hear about the unit early.
How do you make the forecast tenant by tenant?
For every tenancy that carries material income, record what you actually know: the lease events, the latest credit alerts, recent news about the business, and what the tenant said the last time someone asked about its plans. Replace the blanket renewal probability with a judgement for those tenancies, and note the evidence behind it.
Then rank them by income at stake multiplied by the likelihood of the unit coming back, and review the list on a set rhythm, such as each valuation cycle. The top of that list is where the asset management team's time and the replacement effort should go first.
How do you turn a forecast into fewer void months?
Downtime is the input a fund can change. A unit flagged as likely to come back should get a replacement search before the handback, not after it, so the first conversations happen while the outgoing tenant is still paying rent.
That is the step Scayled runs. For each unit the forecast flags, a short brief becomes a map of the businesses near the asset and across the market whose operation suits it, 250 to 350 depending on density, with the signing contact checked and a personal email drafted for each. Funds use it on today's vacancies and on the expiries the model shows coming, and none of it is advertised.
What does Scayled cost, and how does it fit the forecasting stack?
Scayled does not replace ARGUS, the lease system or credit monitoring, and it does not score or forecast tenancies. It is the action taken on the units the forecast flags.
Each flagged unit is a single Scayled Campaign, paid once: US$749 for the Full list of 250 to 350 businesses, or from US$449 for the strongest 100 to 150, with no subscription and no commission on the letting. Run on an expiry ahead of time, it turns the model's downtime assumption into a list of businesses for direct-to-occupier leasing.
Lease The Vacancy In-House, Before You Appoint An Agent.
The Campaign finds the 250 to 350 businesses the building suits, names the person who decides at each and writes every email, ready in about five days. One payment of US$749 per property, no commission and no subscription. A focused 100 to 150 from US$449.