How do you forecast vacancy across an industrial portfolio?
You weight each tenancy by its observed departure risk, not just by its lease-expiry date, because the vacancies that actually hurt are the unscheduled ones an expiry schedule cannot see. Scayled is vacancy-forecasting software that turns continuous tenant signals into a ranked portfolio outlook: every tenancy carries a departure-risk score and an action window, combined with the scheduled events you already track, refreshed every fortnight. That gives a fund a forward vacancy view it can plan capex, gearing, and LP reporting against, instead of a schedule that quietly assumes every tenant stays until its lease ends and then renews.
- Expiry-schedule forecasts miss the vacancies that hurt
- A real forecast weights tenancies by observed risk
- How Scayled builds the outlook
- Planning capex, gearing, and LP reporting against the outlook
- Where this sits next to your existing systems
Expiry-schedule forecasts miss the vacancies that hurt
The standard way to forecast portfolio vacancy is to extrapolate from the lease-expiry schedule and overlay a market vacancy rate. It produces a tidy chart and it is wrong about exactly the cases that matter. An expiry schedule assumes every tenant pays until its term ends and is silent on the unscheduled departure, the 3PL that fails mid-lease, the tenant whose parent consolidates and hands back a unit three years early, the operator that breaks at the first available date because it has already outgrown the box.
Those unscheduled events are the ones that blow a hole in income, precisely because nobody planned for them. A forecast that only counts scheduled expiries is most confident about the periods that turn out to be fine and blind to the ones that are not. For an industrial fund carrying concentrated single-let risk, that is the opposite of a useful forecast.
A real forecast weights tenancies by observed risk
Vacancy forecasting and ongoing vacancy-risk monitoring are related but distinct. Monitoring is the continuous watch on individual tenancies; forecasting is the planning view that aggregates those risks into a portfolio outlook the fund can budget and gear against. A real forecast does not treat every tenancy as certain-to-renew until proven otherwise. It assigns each one a departure probability based on observed signals, contract losses, profit warnings, M&A, supply-chain changes, and combines that with the scheduled events already on the rent roll.
The output is a probability-weighted vacancy outlook rather than a binary expiry list. A tenancy with two years to run but a deteriorating covenant carries real weight in the near-term outlook; a tenancy expiring soon but visibly thriving and space-constrained carries little, because the likelier outcome is a regear. That weighting is what turns a schedule into a forecast a fund can actually plan against.
How Scayled builds the outlook
Scayled monitors every tenant in the portfolio continuously and scores each tenancy for departure and vacancy risk with an estimated action window. It rolls those scores, alongside the scheduled lease events, into a portfolio-wide outlook presented as a live map and a signal feed sorted by who is most likely to move next. The whole picture refreshes every fortnight, so the forecast tracks the portfolio as it actually changes rather than being rebuilt once a quarter.
Because the outlook is ranked, an asset manager reads it in priority order: the tenancies most likely to drive a near-term void sit at the top, each with the evidence and the window to act. And because Scayled also identifies the verified replacement demand for at-risk units, the forecast is not just a warning but a worklist, the units that need a backfill pipeline started come with one already mapped.
Planning capex, gearing, and LP reporting against the outlook
A forward vacancy outlook is an input to almost every fund-level decision. Capex sequencing improves when the fund knows which units are likely to need refurbishment for re-letting and roughly when, so spend lands ahead of the void rather than after it. Refinancing and covenant-headroom planning improve when the fund can stress its income against probable unscheduled departures, not just scheduled expiries, and show a lender a credible downside.
LP and capital-partner reporting improves most of all. Income security is the question funds are asked and the one an expiry schedule answers badly. A risk-weighted vacancy outlook, refreshed fortnightly and backed by evidence, lets a fund report on income security with something forward-looking and defensible rather than a backward-looking rent roll. It is the difference between asserting the income is secure and showing the work.
Where this sits next to your existing systems
This is not a replacement for the systems that already report your portfolio. MRI consolidates multi-asset reporting and Yardi holds the property and accounting record; both describe the portfolio as it is and as it was, accurately. Neither predicts which tenants are about to leave, because neither watches the tenants' businesses. Scayled is the forward-looking layer that supplies that missing input and feeds the outlook back alongside them.
Access is by request. Request access and Scayled works your first at-risk unit free: it ranks the tenants in your portfolio most likely to drive a vacancy, with the evidence and an action window, and maps the verified replacement demand for the unit you choose.
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