What is predictive vacancy analytics in commercial real estate?
Predictive vacancy analytics is the use of data and models to estimate future vacancy, either for a market (forecast vacancy rates by submarket, from providers such as CoStar or Moody's Analytics) or for a portfolio (expected vacant area by quarter, built from lease expiries, renewal probabilities and downtime assumptions in ARGUS Enterprise or an in-house model). Scayled does not do predictive analytics. It is the action on a unit the forecast flags: it finds 250 to 350 businesses the building suits and the person who signs at each, so downtime can be shortened.
- How does predictive vacancy analytics work?
- Which tools provide predictive vacancy analytics?
- How accurate are vacancy predictions?
- What data improves vacancy prediction at asset level?
- What do you do with a vacancy prediction?
- What does Scayled cost?
How does predictive vacancy analytics work?
At market level, providers model supply (completions and the development pipeline) against demand (take-up, economic and employment forecasts) to project vacancy and rents by submarket. At portfolio level, each lease is rolled forward: on expiry or break the tenant either renews, with a set probability, or leaves, followed by a set number of months of downtime before a new tenant.
Multiply those out across the portfolio and you get expected vacancy and lost income by period. Some funds add tenant-level overlays, adjusting the renewal probability for tenants they know more about.
Which tools provide predictive vacancy analytics?
For markets: CoStar's forecasts by submarket, Moody's Analytics CRE (built on REIS) in the US, and the research teams at the large agencies. For portfolios: ARGUS Enterprise market leasing assumptions, the fund's own cash flow models, and lease roll views in VTS.
Tenant credit data from Creditsafe, Dun & Bradstreet or Experian is often added as an overlay, to flag tenancies where a default could create unscheduled vacancy.
How accurate are vacancy predictions?
Reasonably good at the market level and over longer periods, where individual surprises average out. Much weaker for a single tenancy, where the outcome is one decision by one business. A renewal probability is a house estimate applied to a type of lease, and a tenant expanding in place can carry the same number as one about to consolidate.
Unscheduled events, such as insolvency or a parent company closing a site mid-lease, are the hardest to predict. Use the analytics to see where risk sits and how large it is, not to schedule exact dates.
What data improves vacancy prediction at asset level?
Evidence about each material tenant: payment history, credit alerts, news about its business, the fit between its operation and the unit, and what it said in the most recent conversation about its plans. Replace the blanket renewal probability with a recorded judgement for those tenancies.
Add replacement depth: how many businesses the unit suits. That changes the downtime assumption, which is the input a fund can actually influence.
What do you do with a vacancy prediction?
Act on the units it flags. For a tenancy likely to come back, open the renewal conversation and start a replacement search before the handback, so the first conversations happen while the outgoing tenant is still paying rent.
Scayled runs that search on the units the prediction flags. It lists the businesses around the asset and across the market that the building suits, 250 to 350 of them, with the owner, director or property lead at each, a checked contact and a drafted email. The list is in the owner's Scayled account in about five working days, and nothing is advertised.
What does Scayled cost?
Acting on a flagged unit is one campaign, paid once: US$749 for the Full list or from US$449 for a Focused one, with no commission on the letting.
Scayled sits after the analytics, not inside them: the model says which units are at risk, and Scayled shortens the time they sit empty. Why the direct approach matters is covered in marketing a vacancy beyond the listing portals.
Lease The Vacancy In-House, Before You Appoint An Agent.
The Campaign finds the 250 to 350 businesses the building suits, names the person who decides at each and writes every email, ready in about five days. One payment of US$749 per property, no commission and no subscription. A focused 100 to 150 from US$449.