What is the difference between portfolio reporting and predictive analytics in real estate?
Portfolio reporting describes what has happened (occupancy, WALE, arrears, returns against a benchmark), while predictive analytics estimates what is likely to happen next, such as which leases renew, how long a vacancy lasts or which tenants may default, using models built on lease, market and credit data. Tools such as ARGUS Intelligence, MSCI, Yardi and MRI cover reporting, and prediction mostly lives in ARGUS assumptions and credit scores. Scayled does neither. It acts on what the analysis flags: for a vacant or at-risk unit, it finds 250 to 350 businesses the building suits and the person who signs at each.
- What does portfolio reporting cover?
- What counts as predictive analytics in real estate?
- What are the limits of prediction in a real estate portfolio?
- How do you turn analytics into a decision?
- Which software provides each layer?
- Where does Scayled fit, and what does it cost?
What does portfolio reporting cover?
Reporting aggregates data the fund already holds: occupancy and vacancy, WALE to expiry and break, arrears, income against budget, valuation movements, and returns against a benchmark. It answers what happened and where the portfolio stands today.
Yardi and MRI produce operational and investor reporting from the system of record. Altus Group's ARGUS Intelligence provides asset, portfolio and benchmark performance views built on ARGUS Enterprise data. MSCI provides the property indexes many funds benchmark against.
What counts as predictive analytics in real estate?
Any model that estimates a future outcome. In a valuation, ARGUS Enterprise applies a renewal probability and expected downtime to each lease. Credit scores are predictions too: Creditsafe's score estimates the likelihood of insolvency within twelve months, and CreditRiskMonitor's FRISK score estimates the probability of bankruptcy within the same period.
Market forecasts of rents, vacancy and yields from CoStar, agency research and other data providers are the third kind. All three produce probabilities and ranges, not certainties.
What are the limits of prediction in a real estate portfolio?
Industrial portfolios often have a small number of large tenants, so averages say little about any one of them. A renewal probability applied to every lease of a type cannot tell a tenant that is consolidating from one that is expanding in place.
Credit-based models predict default, not departure. A solvent tenant leaving after an acquisition or a contract change will not show in a credit score, and that is a common way industrial units come back.
How do you turn analytics into a decision?
Each output should end in a short ranked list with an owner and an action: this tenant to meet, this lease to regear, this unit to prepare for re-letting. A chart with no owner does not change income.
For units likely to come back, the action that most affects income is starting the replacement search early, because downtime is where most of the cost of a departure sits.
Which software provides each layer?
Reporting: Yardi, MRI, ARGUS Intelligence, MSCI and BI tools over the fund's data warehouse. Prediction: ARGUS Enterprise assumptions, credit services such as Creditsafe, Dun & Bradstreet, Experian, CreditRiskMonitor and Moody's, and market forecasts from CoStar and the large agencies.
Pricing for these is on quote and depends on portfolio size, users and modules.
Where does Scayled fit, and what does it cost?
Scayled is not analytics software. It does not report, predict or score. It is what a fund does next on a unit that is vacant or coming back: identify 250 to 350 businesses the space suits, reach the person who decides at each and send an email built around this building.
The price is set per unit, not per user: The Campaign costs US$749 for the Full list of 250 to 350 businesses or from US$449 for a Focused 100 to 150, one payment with no subscription and no commission. It runs alongside any appointed agent. Shortening a commercial vacancy covers the other actions worth taking on what the analytics flag.
Lease The Vacancy In-House, Before You Appoint An Agent.
The Campaign finds the 250 to 350 businesses the building suits, names the person who decides at each and writes every email, ready in about five days. One payment of US$749 per property, no commission and no subscription. A focused 100 to 150 from US$449.